Overnight market review
Yesterday morning, the polyester raw materials were weak, PTA's opening trend fell slightly, and MEG's center of gravity fluctuated within a narrow range. In terms of polyester products, the prices of mainstream factories have risen steadily, and some specifications in some areas have risen by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the rest are stable. In the downstream weaving process, the polyester started load was 89.23%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms started 86%. In terms of equipment, a set of PTA devices in East China began to be inspected. The peripheral systemic risks are repeated, the fundamentals of the industrial chain remain benign, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.
PTA stops falling and becomes stable
Affected by the increase in Russian production, Saudi Arabia is expected to cut the price of crude oil to Asia, and the trade action between China and the United States has intensified, and oil prices have fallen recently. As the Sino-US trade war continues to ferment, it is speculated that China and the United States may continue to increase tariffs on the other's products in the later period, but the market panic is limited, domestic industrial products futures are mostly rising, and the chemical futures atmosphere is generally strong. In terms of PTA, the recent market has continued to rise slightly, and futures are strong and volatile.
PTA1805 contract day K line
In terms of spot, the PTA-PX processing spread has dropped significantly in the past month, and the profitability has weakened. As a result, PTA companies have decided to overhaul in April and May. More maintenance, destocking will benefit the market mentality, which will help PTA rebound briefly. Recently, the price of downstream polyester plants has been temporarily stabilized, and the production and sales of polyesters are generally good. The enthusiasm for enquiries will be improved in the short term at high operating rates. However, due to the excess spot of PTA, the improvement of polyester production and sales has relatively limited boosting effect on the PTA market.
The terminal market is still warm
Due to the fact that in the first silk town of China, Shengze, industrial agglomeration, and numerous enterprises, any “wind and grass†in the fabric market in Shengze area may cause dramatic changes in the industry. To understand the market of grey cloths, we can start from the region. Like copying the 2017 market, in recent days, the Shengze market has seen a phenomenon of “one cloth is hard to findâ€. Affected by environmental supervision and the printing and dyeing industry's continued upward adjustment of dyeing fees, many people expressed concern that the "butterfly effect" would trigger multiple price hikes. The phenomenon of "one cloth is hard to find" is not known when it can be alleviated.
According to investigations by relevant agencies, the sales of grey cloths in the area are very hot, and some fabrics even have to queue up for goods. At present, most of the weaving manufacturers in the region generally take orders for two months, and the orders are abundant even for three months and six months. In addition, the collection situation is relatively good.
Last week, polyester raw materials opened the replenishment cycle, and the MEG price increase led to downstream purchasing sentiment, and polyester filament sales rebounded significantly. Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have even reached 400% and above. Polyester manufacturers said that the accumulated inventory during the Spring Festival was basically digested. Compared with the past, the downstream polyester manufacturers and terminal weaving manufacturers have more rational management ideas. The specific performance is that the stocking rhythm is stable and orderly, and there is no phenomenon of stocking up. When it comes to the market of the weaving market in the second quarter, both manufacturers and traders are more optimistic. Based on the expected growth in consumer demand, the polyester industry is still optimistic in most markets in 2018.
However, in the second half of the year, with the release of production capacity, the supply of conventional grey cloth will change from the current tension to the loose. The conventional grey cloth market in the first half of the year is still uncertain, while the jet, medium and high-end grey cloth market is less affected by environmental protection. It is expected to be relatively stable.
On the whole, the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry chain with PTA as the core may reach a temporary balance or run in a range, but as the polyester production capacity continues to recover, the operating rate will run at a high level, and the PTA producers will be in the near future. The shutdown and maintenance are expected to be gradually realized, and the industrial chain may usher in a structural supply and demand turning point.
Editor in charge: Xu Yuehua
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