2011 cotton price trend is complicated and complicated Who puts wings on cotton?

The source of cotton is the clothing that almost every citizen cannot leave. In the “2011 Cotton Workshop” on February 26th, it was learned that with the slow recovery of the global economy and the impact of factors such as increased demand, reduced cotton production, and speculation of hot money, China entered the new flowering year of the 10/11 year, international and domestic cotton. The market fluctuates dramatically. From mid-September 2010 to early November, the price of cotton jumped from 18,200 yuan to 33,000 yuan, or 72%, in less than two months. Who gave cotton its wings and why the cotton price changed drastically, what impact will this bring on businesses and farmers, and where will the cotton go in 2011?

Cotton prices soared 72% in two months

Before 2010, the cotton price was relatively stable. In the 10/11 new flowering year, the cotton price changed more violently. From the cotton market operation situation in the past half year from the end of February to February 2011, cotton prices have generally experienced three stages of skyrocketing, crashing, and picking up. Chemical fiber, yarn and other products also basically run along the track of cotton, and repeatedly set a record high.

Domestic cotton prices rose from 18,200 yuan to 33,000 yuan, or 72%, from mid-September to early November, less than two months. Afterwards, to stabilize prices, the price of agricultural products was regulated by the state's combined boxing. In 2011, the cotton price was 11 months and a half. Month time fell to 26,100 yuan, a decrease of 16.6%; after entering 2011, cotton prices by the supply and demand and the impact of international cotton prices, cotton prices rose moderately, as of February rose to more than 30,000 yuan.

What is even more surprising is that the cotton market in the new cotton year also presents an important feature. The transaction volume has increased significantly, the volume of warehouse receipts has changed little, and short-term operations have become more apparent. The average daily trading volume increased to 1.62 million contracts, and the turnover reached 204.3 billion yuan, 3.4 times the previous level. Since then, the trading volume has gradually decreased, and the shadow of the hot money has disappeared.

The gap between supply and demand lifted cotton prices soared behind the cotton price, that is, the lack of supply and demand impact, but also related to hot money speculation. Jin Lin Textile senior analyst Wei Linyan said that in recent years, China's cotton spinning capacity has been developing rapidly. According to calculations, as of 2010, China's cotton spinning capacity has approached 150 million ingots, an increase of nearly 120 million ingots compared to 1995, nearly five times that of 1995. “At present, there are about 40 million spindles in Shandong, which is equivalent to the total amount of spinning in the country in 2001.” According to rough calculations, according to a rough calculation, in 2010, China’s cotton consumption was about 13.52 million tons, an increase of 10.3 million tons from 1995, which was in 1995. Nearly 4 times. Among them, consumption increased by 3 million tons from 1995 to 2004, an average annual increase of 7.6%, and increased by 7.3 million tons from 2004 to 2010, an average annual increase of nearly 1 million tons, with an average increase of 13.8%.

Wei Linyan said that compared with the increasing demand, cotton planting area is difficult to upgrade. “The cotton sown area in 2009 and 2010 was approximately 7425 and 77.64 million mu. The cotton planting area has been difficult to break through. From the domestic market, due to the growth of cotton spinning capacity, cotton is subject to the limitation of arable land, and the cotton supply and demand situation is produced. There is a need for surplus, a basic balance between production and demand, and the gap between production and demand will increase after 2005. In 2010, the gap between cotton production and demand expanded from 2.36 million tons in 2005 to nearly 7 million tons or so, and the contradiction between production and demand became increasingly prominent. One of the important factors for the rise in cotton prices."

In addition, Yin Bin, deputy general manager of Qingdao Sales Department, said Bin, the soaring cotton prices and hot money transition speculation related. “The state is controlling the real estate market, purchase restrictions are imposed on home purchases, part of the hot money is withdrawn from the real estate market, and it is flooded into agricultural products, including the cotton market. The “real estate corporation” has become a “speculative cotton group” in the cash market, especially in Xinjiang. The market and futures markets are buzzing with speculation. Looking at the cotton futures market, it is not difficult to see from the transactions of Zheng cotton in September-November 2001 that the daily turnover has increased significantly. As mentioned above, the daily turnover is less than 60 billion yuan. The level of the yuan, which reached nearly 300 billion yuan during this period, was mostly due to short-term operations, which led to a continuous limit-setting of Zhengmian **, and the price rose to over 34,000 yuan. After the state introduced some measures in November, These funds began to gradually withdraw from the cotton market."

The trend of cotton prices in 2011 is still "complicated"

Looking forward to the trend of cotton prices in 2011, from the current point of view is still "clouds cover the eyes," is the fall or rise prospects are unpredictable. Wei Linyan said that from the current economic performance of the textile industry, it does not support the increase in cotton prices. However, the current cost of seed cotton acquisition is high, and the downside is also limited. According to statistics, as of February 23, the average purchase price of the third grade seed cotton in 2010/11 was 5.51 yuan/kg, and the average cost of discounted lint cotton was 23,900 yuan/ton, which was 62% and 71.7% higher than the previous year respectively. However, most of the seed cotton is purchased at more than 6 yuan, and the highest level of seed cotton is 6.98 yuan/kg, and the value of the discounted cotton is 30,000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the high cost of acquisition of cotton prices is limited.

"The cotton acreage has not significantly increased and will still depend on imports in the next year. According to the investigation of the Ministry of Agriculture's Agricultural Cotton Institute, the national cotton area for the year 1011/12 is estimated to be 77.64 million mu, which is an increase of 4.1% over this year. The output will be up to 7 million tons next year, and at least 30% will depend on imported cotton.The relationship between supply and demand is still an important fulcrum supporting the decline of cotton prices.Some cotton enterprises hope to stay in the market and continue to reluctant to sell.Before the Spring Festival, some pressure on cotton is high. Or the cotton business enterprises that have shaken the market outlook will sell some lint in the stockpiling of textile companies before the Spring Festival, but some cotton enterprises that are firmly committed to cotton will continue to reluctantly sell their goods, and will perform more aggressively in raising their prices. , And higher than the domestic cotton price, there is a certain support for the domestic cotton price.At present, although the international cotton price has a substantial reduction, but much higher than the domestic cotton price.The cotton imports in the short term is more difficult, the supply and demand contradictions are still difficult In the short term, there has been a marked improvement, and there is also a certain support for domestic cotton prices.” Zhang Meng, an analyst with Qingdao Mid-term Sales Department in Qingdao, said that the price of cotton is up and down, but from that Look at, still in the rally.